Seasonal Climate Outlook for Australia April – June 2021


There are several ongoing trends in the Australian climate that are having a long-term effect. Overall, the climate has warmed by approximately 1.44 °C since 2010. There has also been a significant change in the amount of rainfall in different parts of the country.

For example, there has been a 10-20% reduction in rainfall during the cool season in southern Australia in recent years. Conversely, wet season rainfall in the north has increased.

These trends have a serious effect on the agriculture industry in the country as they can lead to extreme weather conditions such as drought.

Key points

  • Global warming has caused significant changes to the Australian climate in recent years.
  • The rainfall between April and June 2021 is expected to be higher than average in the far north of Australia.
  • April 2021 is expected to be wetter than usual in north and south-western Western Australia and the north of the Northern Territory.
  • In most areas of Australia the temperature between April and June 2021 is expected to be higher than normal.

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Many of these ongoing climate changes are due to the impact of global warming. Aside from these changes, there are also regular factors that affect the Australian climate. These factors include la Nina, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

The Bureau of Meteorology takes account of these common factors as well as climate change when it predicts the climate in the country for the coming months. Using all of this information, it provides temperature and rainfall insights like the following information for April to June 2021.


 

 

Rainfall Outlook in Australia April-June 2021

The rainfall for April to June in Australia is expected to be higher than average in the far north of the country. However, this will not be the situation for the whole of Australia. Some areas will probably see less rainfall than average.

For example, the three months are likely to be drier than average for large parts of the eastern mainland of Australia. This includes southern Queensland, inland New South Wales and Victoria, and the far east of South Australia.

 

 

Taking a closer look at the country’s rainfall across the months, April 2021 is expected to be wetter than usual in north and south-western Western Australia as well as the north of the Northern Territory and the far north of Queensland.

Also, in April, the south of Queensland, New South Wales, and the north of Victoria should be drier. The dry tendency is likely to be a constant across much of mainland Australia in May.

However, in certain areas there is less certainty. The outlook for South Australia in May is something of a waiting game, with there being an equal chance of the area being wetter or drier than average. The picture should become clearer as the month approaches.

Climate expectations for April to June in Australia are not just about the amount of rain that will fall. The predicted temperatures for the country are equally as important.

Temperature Outlook in Australia April-June 2021

Overall, temperatures in Australia from April to June 2021 should be warmer than average for almost all areas. There is a greater than 60% chance of this happening. However, the top of the Northern Territory is an exception to this. In this part of the country, there is an equal chance of nights being warmer or cooler than average.

There is also some uncertainty in other parts of the country. In the eastern inland, and central part of Australia, there is an equal chance of the three-month period being warmer or cooler than normal, especially during April. In May, the chance of cooler nights in inland Queensland and central Australia increases.

Between April and June, the days in the top of the Northern Territory are also expected to have lower than average temperatures. The chance of temperatures exceeding the median is only 40%. The lower temperatures coincide with the expected higher than average rainfall.

According to the current indications from ENSO and MJO, these predictions are reasonably accurate. However, as the months progress, Australia’s climate outlook for April -June 2021 will continue to be updated.

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